Changing face of Valley's electorate

YAKIMA, Wash. -- Latinos account for all the growth in voter registration in Yakima County over the past five years while non-Latinos are slowly disappearing from the rolls, according to data from the Auditor's Office.

Still, Latino voters are much less likely to cast ballots than others.

As candidates make a final push to win over voters before the Nov. 3 election, a Yakima Herald-Republic analysis of county voter data shows Latinos are voting in increasing numbers but still far short of their potential.

* Since 2005, the number of non-Latino registered voters in Yakima County has dropped by 1,386, while the number of registered Latino voters grew by 4,626. Of Yakima County's total of 97,061 registered voters, 19 percent are now Latino.

* Registered Latino voters are less likely to vote than others. Non-Latinos cast 85 percent of the ballots in last year's presidential election despite making up just 66 percent of the voting age population.

* While small relative to their overall population, Latinos' voting has nearly doubled since 2005. They cast 8 percent of all ballots in the general election of 2005 and 15 percent last November.

"It's a matter of time before Eastern Washington starts to become a vibrant Latino political community," said Joaquin Avila, executive director of the National Voting Rights Advocacy Initiative and a professor at Seattle University's School of Law.

"The larger picture in many places, in the state of Washington, and across the Southwest, is that the Latino community is growing significantly," he added. "And even though some of that growth might be fueled by a non-citizen population, clearly it is also fueled by a Latino citizen population."

The data used by the Herald-Republic to analyze voter trends relied on software used by Yakima County to track Latino voter participation as required by the U.S Department of Justice.

Using software that identifies Latino surnames, Yakima County codes outgoing ballots and tracks their return. The tracking system does not identify how voters cast their ballots.

The county's tracking system was developed in the aftermath of a 2004 Justice Department complaint that the county was violating the federal Voting Rights Act. The department ordered the county to begin providing voting material in Spanish and take other measures to ensure Latinos participate in the voting process.

Lupe Camacho, the county's bilingual elections program director, said it's obvious why only 15 percent of votes in last year's presidential election came from Latinos even though Latinos make up 34 percent of the county's voting age population.

"Citizenship. That's the main reason," she said. "Latinos are just as likely to register to vote if they are able to and they're here."

That was exactly the case for Geronimo Perales, a 70-year-old southeast Yakima resident who decades ago conducted voter drives in his native Mexico.

"When I was a Mexican citizen, I voted there," said Perales, who became a U.S. citizen in 1996. "To vote is a right and responsibility of all citizens. And I feel it's my right to vote in whatever country I am a citizen of."

It's a different story for Maria Morfín, who was born in California 34 years ago but grew up in the Mexican state of Zacatecas. Today she lives and works in Yakima.

Like others, she registered to vote while getting her Washington driver's license. But she says she doesn't know enough about politicians' platforms to make an educated vote.

"I am not going to vote just to vote. That doesn't seem right to me," said Morfín, who added that it's easier for her to learn about politicians in Mexico during short vacations there than about politicians here.

"I've met the governor of Zacatecas twice," she said. "I don't even know the name of the governor of Washington."

Camacho said Latinos tend to vote more when candidates make an effort to talk with them -- especially if said candidates are Latinos themselves.

"That doesn't necessarily mean that Latino voters will vote for Latinos, but (those candidates) bring more awareness to the elections," Camacho said.

Still, some research shows that Latinos turn out in greater numbers and support Latinos when they're candidates.

"The presence of a Latino candidate mobilizes the Latino electorate, resulting in elevated voter turnout and strong support for (Latino) candidates," wrote Matt Barreto, a University of Washington political science professor, in a 2007 report.

"Analysis of recent mayoral elections in five major U.S. cities reveals that Latinos were consistently mobilized by (Latino) candidates."

Mirroring national trends, Latino voters in Yakima County are far less likely than non-Latinos to cast a ballot. During last year's presidential election, for example, turnout rates for registered Latinos and non-Latinos voters in Yakima County were 66 percent and 83 percent, respectively.

One reason may be that Latinos are more likely to work migratory jobs and not own homes, Camacho said. Ballots sent by mail wouldn't reach those mobile voters.

As for the drop in non-Latino registered voters, a look to U.S. Census data offers an explanation. The county's non-Latino population dropped by 4 percent between 2000 and 2008. During the same period, the Latino population grew by 22 percent -- with much of the growth in children under the age of 18. (Latinos now account for 41 percent of the county's population).

The number of registered non-Latino voters has fallen by 2 percent since 2005 -- while the number of Latino voters grew by 33 percent.

The trend suggests that non-Latino voters are dying or leaving Yakima faster than they're being replaced.

Avila said the correlation is not unusual: "If you have a population decrease, it's not unexpected to have a similar decrease in voter registration figures."

* Melissa Sánchez can be reached at 509-577-7675 or msanchez@yakimaherald.com.

Turnout prediction for Nov. 3 election

* Yakima County voter turnout for the Nov. 3 general election is predicted at 53 percent of registered voters. Statewide, voter turnout is predicted at 51 percent -- about average for an off-year election. Last year, a record-high 85 percent of Washington voters cast ballots in the presidential election. In Yakima County the rate was 80 percent.

Returned Ballots

* As of Tuesday morning, voters in Yakima County had returned 7,730 out of 97,061 total ballots issued -- an 8 percent turnout so far. To be counted, ballots must be postmarked on or before Nov. 3.

Time is running out to register

* Monday is the last day for in-person new registration -- offered only for residents not currently registered in Washington. The Yakima County Auditor's Office is at 128 N. Second St., Room 117. Office hours are from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.