Higher prices may offset lower apple production

YAKIMA, Wash. -- Washington's 2009 apple crop is forecast to be smaller than last year's, but growers may be in line to get more money for it.

The Aug. 1 crop estimate issued Monday -- the first official look at production of the state's top agriculture commodity -- projects 107 million boxes will be packed and shipped for fresh sale over the next year.

A more complete figure will be available once harvest is complete and fruit is in storage in November.

But industry sources indicate quality is good, and there's less of the small-sized fruit that lowered returns to growers from the record 2008 crop. The size of last year's crop, currently projected at 109 million boxes, won't be known until final shipments are made around the end of September.

"We are more optimistic because size will be better," said Mike Saunders, chief operating officer for Apple King LLC, a Yakima grower-packer. "The difference from last year is the price should be better and marketing should be easier."

Dan Kelly, assistant manager for the Washington Growers Clearing House in Wenatchee, said the 2009 crop "should look more positive assuming the good quality stays. We should have no trouble moving it and have a better price level."

Apple packers and marketers struggled to deal with the larger volume of small fruit produced last fall in the face of a poor processing market. Some fruit was diverted and fed to cattle.

Domestic supermarket chains prefer larger apple sizes over smaller apples.

A season-average price for all grades and sizes this year for the 2008 crop is $16.77 per box, compared to $20.95 for the 2007 crop, according to Washington Growers Clearing House records.

The 2007 crop, which included 98.7 million boxes sold for fresh consumption, was valued at $1.75 billion, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

A value for 2008 won't be available until next year.

Last fall's larger crop did open more export opportunities. The state may sell a record 35 million boxes overseas this year, according to Rebecca Baerveldt, export manager for the Washington Apple Commission.

She said the smaller crop this year and more even distribution of fruit size will be good for overseas sales.

The 2009 crop estimate is drawn from reports gathered by 55 apple packers and shippers statewide.

More than 70 million boxes projected from the 2009 crop will be packed at warehouses in the Yakima Valley, and 36.9 million boxes in the Wenatchee district. More apples grown in the Columbia Basin are packed in Yakima.

Keith Mathews, executive director of the Yakima Valley Growers-Shippers Association, said the crop estimate is subject to change based on how the crop progresses through the late summer and into harvest. Favorable weather conditions would allow apples to grow larger.

Estimating the crop is complicated by uncertainty over production from many new, high-density plantings that yield fruit sooner.

Mathews said the challenge for the industry is to market the crop in the midst of the economic downturn in competition with other major producing states that have larger crops this year, including New York and Michigan.

But he added the industry has learned to market a large crop.

* David Lester can be reached at 509-577-7674 or dlester@yakimaherald.com.

What's getting picked

Washington apple crop recent production and forecast for 2009:

2007 2008 2009

Red Del. 33,000 34,532 33,300

Golden Del. 10,595 12,779 11,075

Granny Smith 12,847 14,977 14,700

Fuji 12,126 14,964 13,650

Gala 18,882 20,310 21,600

Braeburn 3,373 3,322 3,425

Jonagold 978 1,096 1,090

Cameo 1,225 1,329 1,071

Cripps Pink 2,419 2,282 2,625

Other 3,280 3,758 4,525

98,725 109,348 107,061

Figures are in 1,000 box units.

2007 totals are final, 2008 numbers are indicated and 2009 represents the Aug. 1 forecast.

Source: Yakima Valley Growers-Shippers Assn.