Verdict is in for nearly half county voters

More than 44,200 Yakima County voters -- about 45 percent -- had cast their ballots by Thursday.

While it's impossible to tell whether the early voters are leaning one way or the other in the presidential race, it's likely they're generally in line with the local voting public as a whole, Yakima County Auditor Corky Mattingly said.

Prior to switching to an all-mail voting system in 2005, elections officials noted a tendency for absentee ballots to be disproportionately Republican or conservative. But with everyone voting by mail, there haven't been any discernible trends between early or late voters, she said.

In other words, the ballots returned two weeks before Nov. 4 aren't likely to be any different from those returned on Election Day.

"That's why the results don't change very often from election night," Mattingly said.

Predicting voter support for certain candidates based on arrival time is further complicated in Washington state, which does not require voters to register by party. It's easier in some states that release information about how many ballots have come from registered Democrats and Republicans. Still other states, which must comply with Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, can provide data broken down by voters' racial backgrounds.

If there's one thing Mattingly is sure about with Yakima County, it's that many people are voting early this year. She attributes it to a contradictory combination of circumstances: People are more excited about this election than they have been in a long time, and people are sick of it.

"I've heard from people that this has all gone on for so long, they just want to get it over with," she said.

Mattingly, other county auditors and state Secretary of State Sam Reed are predicting unusually high voter participation. Statewide, Reed predicts 83 percent of registered voters will cast ballots, which would be the highest rate in more than six decades.

Mattingly predicts 77 to 80 percent participation in Yakima County. Generally, a surge of ballots arrives in the final few days of an election, which would add to the already 44,200 ballots in hand, she said. Altogether, 97,931 ballots were mailed out to registered voters.

"Forty-five percent and we've still got the biggest numbers of ballots yet to come in," Mattingly said.

If that happens, the county will surpass its 76 percent rate the last two presidential races.

"So it looks like we're on track," she said.

Meanwhile, work goes on to prepare ballots for election night. In a locked ballot processing room in the bowels of the county courthouse, workers are verifying signatures and sorting ballots by precinct.

"We worked till, like, 11:30 last night and got back here at 7:30 this morning," Mattingly said.

The team -- which includes two seasonal staffers and a half-dozen paid ballot processors from each political party -- are comparing signatures on ballot envelopes with those on file, examining ballots that aren't filled out correctly and scanning ballots for fast computer counting on Election Night.

"I always make a joke of it: You work till you drop," Mattingly said.

* Pat Muir can be reached at 577-7693 or pmuir@yakimaherald.com.

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